Carmel, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

919
FXUS63 KIND 250700
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
300 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic showers and storms through this evening, locally heavy
  rainfall possible

- Brief cooldown Saturday before temperatures return to above normal
  levels by early next week

- Active and stormy pattern from Tuesday through Thursday, with the
  potential for severe weather on Tuesday

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Current radar and surface observations show mostly quiet weather
conditions across central Indiana with only a few showers or storms
across the far south. Subtle forcing should continue to keep
precipitation very isolated over the next few hours until a broad
low pressure system moves in. Stronger forcing from the approaching
system and deeper moisture surging northward will promote more
widespread precipitation through the day. Thunderstorms are also
possible as daytime heating combined with moisture advection leads
to modest destabilization.

Forecast soundings depict a saturated column, nearly moist-adiabatic
lapse rates, and skinny CAPE profiles. This along with warm rain
processes will support the potential for locally heavy rain. Severe
weather is unlikely due to weak deep-layer shear, but a few strong
sub-severe storms are still possible.

Look for precipitation chances to taper off this evening once the
low pressure system and associated cold front move east. Cold air
advection and surface high pressure building in will then provide
quiet weather conditions overnight. While temperatures are expected
to cool considerably, lows should still be near seasonal due to the
antecedent warmth. Increasing subsidence above trapped low-level
moisture will likely lead to a widespread stratus deck
developing late tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

A quick moving but amplifying upper level low will swing across the
Great Lakes on Saturday with a brief shot of cooler air for the
region before ridging reestablishes into early next week with a
resumption of warm temperatures. An increasingly active and
unsettled pattern will develop by Tuesday with the arrival of a cold
front into the Ohio Valley. The front is likely to become quasi-
stationary over the region into late next week with multiple
opportunities for showers and storms.

Saturday through Monday

The coolest day of the extended comes on Saturday as chillier air
advects into the region. A tighter pressure gradient in between the
departing cold front and strong high pressure centered over the
western Great Lakes will keep brisk northerly flow for much of the
day before diminishing into the evening. Stratus is likely to linger
for a good portion of the day as well with gradual scattering into
cu during the afternoon before skies clear into Saturday night.
Highs will generally end up in the 60 to 65 degree range but the
northerly winds and stratus will make it feel cooler.

After a chilly start Sunday morning with the potential for few spots
to dip into the upper 30s across northern parts of the forecast
area...a warming trend will commence as return flow develops on the
back side of the departing high pressure. Deep subsidence over the
Ohio Valley will make for a sunny and pleasant finish to the weekend
with a return to much warmer temperatures for Monday as southerly
flow develops. Highs on Monday will be back near 80 degrees across
central Indiana.

Monday Night through Thursday

A cold front will track through the Missouri and mid Mississippi
Valleys Monday night and into the region on Tuesday. Ample
instability and low level moisture will be present over central
Indiana with modest upper level dynamics as the front moves across
the forecast area late day into Tuesday night. While details remain
uncertain at this point...the primary threat for severe weather
impacts locally will focus during this timeframe as the boundary
moves through the area.

The front will stall near the Ohio River for the middle of next week
as it becomes nearly parallel to the upper level flow pattern. This
will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area with
potential for more widespread convection impacting the forecast area
on Thursday as low pressure develops and tracks along the front and
through the region.

Temperatures will remain warm next week with highs peaking in the low
80s on Tuesday ahead of the cold front. Expect upper 60s to mid 70s
for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Impacts:

- Localized MVFR ceilings possible around 11-19Z today in showers,
  best chance near BMG

- Low chance for thunderstorms later today

Discussion:

More widespread cloud cover is expected later today as broad low
pressure moves through the area along with showers and perhaps
scattered thunderstorms, particularly during the daytime hours.
Uncertainty still remains on potential for thunder at any one
location, but PROB30 groups were added with general timing of best
thunder chances.

Increasing low level moisture will allow ceilings to drop near or
just after daybreak as precipitation move in. MVFR ceilings will
likely be transient at most sites but perhaps BMG, where guidance is
a bit more aggressive.

Precipitation threat will come to an end this evening as the cold
front passes through the area. Trapped low level moisture may
produce more widespread lower ceilings in the wake of the front,
along with a few gusty winds at or beyond the end of the period.

Winds will become more southwesterly during the day and then
northwesterly in the wake of the front this evening.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Melo